iPredict launched contracts half an hour ago on the top marginal tax rate. There's been lots of talk of drops in the top marginal rate funded by increased taxes on investment property and an increased GST. Odds on favourite now is a drop in the top marginal rate from 38% to the 33-35% range: it jumped on opening from about $0.50 to $0.88.
At these prices, I'm buying $0.35-$0.38. Wouldn't be a bad little hedge if I weren't heavily liquidity constrained.
As for the hoped for drop to 30 cents? Pretty unlikely.
Matt's launching another 25-odd contracts today....